So Tim is doing an exhibition debate using the piracy case and emailed me asking for analysis of the neg’s position. I thought it a good exercise in demonstrating how to quickly make responses as you hear them, so below are what I would actually say in a round (and have written down on my flow as the arguments were being made) just in terms of mitigation/refutation, before going to my points and emphasizing the advantages of the case and doing some impact weighing. Here’s the neg, following is the commentary.
False link: Most piracy does not occur near India.* 98% of piracy occurs in Southern Hemisphere. That doesn’t mean 98% of it occurs near India. Most pirate attacks off Somalia, right?
Smita Nair, Indian Express, September 19, 2008
Barely 48 hours after an Oil tanker with an 18-member Indian crew was hijacked in the Gulf of Aden off the Somalian coast, the International Maritime Bureau has declared the region as the most sensitive and dangerous waterway surpassing the otherwise notorious Nigerian stretch.
Associated Press, September 8, 2008
Somalia, which has had no functioning government since 1991, is the world’s top piracy hotspot.
No way of accurately estimating piracy’s impact
Munich Re Group (international insurance company), September 22, 2006
The loss suffered by national economies as a result of piracy is difficult to estimate. The estimates presented by different observers are too far apart to allow a serious statement. Besides, the basis underlying the figures is very rarely cited. We do not wish to share or add to such speculation and will therefore abstain from giving an estimate of our own here. At first glance, the overall loss attributable to piracy appears slight in relation to the total value of goods transported by=2 0sea.
INHERENCY (Link to Topicality. There is no significant change).
Indian-American naval cooperation is firmly established (204)
India and US working closely on maritime cooperation (204)
India Report by John E. Carbaugh, Jr., June 2, 2003
The two countries have conducted numerous joint military exercises in the last couple of years. These have included Indian paratroopers working with their U.S. counterparts in Alaska, joint military airlift operations in India, and American and Indian military personnel taking part in the Shanti Path 03 peacekeeping exercises in India. Perhaps the most promising area of military cooperation has been in the naval sector, with the Indian and U.S. navies conducting a number of exercises that included anti-submarine training, and combating piracy. Indian naval ships also mounted escort patrols for U.S. ships through the Malacca Straits in support of Operation Enduring Freedom. American warships now routinely refuel in Chennai and Mumbai.
India already working with regional neighbors to counteract piracy
Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., (Senior Research Fellow), Lisa Curtis (Senior Research Fellow for South Asia), The Heritage Foundation, May 30, 2008
Likewise, India is working with its regional neighbors to counter the various maritime crimes (e.g., drug trafficking and piracy) that threaten some of the country’s shipping routes.
Regional cooperation is successfully reducing piracy in South Asia
Steve Herman, Voice of America, Global Security.org, May 21, 2008
Unprecedented sea and air patrols by Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia in the Strait of Malacca, a busy global shipping choke point, have led to Southeast Asia no longer being regarded as the world’s most dangerous piracy zone. ReCAAP Deputy Director Teo says data sharing mong Asian militaries and maritime law enforcement agencies has also made a difference. “That also gives the reasons for certain actions to be carried out, particularly in law enforcement and preventative actions,” he added. As a result, the region has seen a downward trend in pirate attacks over the last five-year period.
India is already building up her naval power (209)(See Money spent on new mi litary capabilities could bring drinking water to millions)
India is happy with the security of South Asian waters
Defense Minister Pranab Mukherjee on India’s Strategic Perspectives, Address at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, DC, June 27, 2005
Our approach to it is essentially cooperative. We now have coordinated maritime patrolling arrangements with Indonesia, Thailand and Sri Lanka. Our Navy has been providing hydrographic assistance to Indonesia, Seychelles and Mauritius, and maritime security cover for Summit Conferences in Mozambique. The Coast Guard and Navy have been active in anti-piracy, disaster relief, and environmental management and response operations. The Navy has also been conducting joint exercises in the Indian Ocean with the US, France, Singapore, Russia and Oman amongst others. In 2002, we provided escort operations for high value US naval assets passing through the Malacca Straits. The Indian Navy holds the MILAN Naval Exercises off Andaman and Nicobar islands every two years. On the security of Malaccas, we are comfortable with its management by the littoral states and would be happy to join a regional initiative, if necessary, and if the littoral states are comfortable with our participation.
India’s intelligence agencies are not structured to investigate terrorism (BBA, 233)
Indian agencies don’t even share intelligence among themselves (BBA, 233)
Cooperating with the US on terrorism is not necessarily good for India* (BBA, 233)
Somalia: Presence of several navies has not deterred piracy
India Express, September 24, 2008
Replying to queries on the Navy’s request to tackle piracy, the minister said the Gulf of Aden has become a “very dangerous place” and despite the presence of several navies, 27 incidents of piracy have taken place in the region. “Major naval powers such as US, France, UK and Canada are already carrying out joint patrolling there but despite their presence these incidents are happening. As many as 27 ships have been hijacked in the area despite the patrols,” he said.
Shipping companies, not the navy, must tackle piracy
Barbara Surk, Associated Press, September 23, 2008
The international shipping industry must take on more responsibility to protect vessels against pirate attacks and kidnappings in the dangerous waters of Somalia rather than rely on the U.S. Navy, the commander of the 5th Fleet warned on Monday. Vice Adm. Bill Gortney said the U.S.-led coalition patrolling the Gulf of Aden simply doesn’t “have the resources to provide 24-hour protection” for hundreds of commercial vessels passing daily through these dangerous waters between Somalia and Yemen. Gortney’s comments come as heavily armed pirates are increasingly preying on shipping in the area.
Anti-piracy efforts have to focus ashore, not just at sea
Barbara Surk, Associated Press, September 23, 2008
British navy’s commander in the Middle East, Commodore Keith Winstanley, acknowledged in a telephone interview with The Associated Press a “considerable spike in destabilizing activity,” with smuggling, trafficking, hijacking and crew kidnappings becoming “an extremely lucrative business.” Wistanley warned that the presence of coalition destroyers, frigates and an aircraft carrier alone won’t stop the piracy. “We do what we can, but the solution to this problem is clearly not at sea, but ashore in Somalia.” He did not elaborate.
Global shipping industry: Lack of clear rules of engagement could harm anti-piracy efforts
International Chamber of Shipping & International Shipping Federation, News Release, September 17, 2008
The solution, the industry stresses, is for more nations to commit naval vessels in the area and, crucially, for them to engage effectively, actively and forcefully against any act of piracy, and to intercept and bring to justice the criminals in order to re-establish safety and security to one the world’s most strategically important seaways. Only interception and arrests, as permitted by UN Security Council Resolution 1816, will tackle the problem, with ships currently being attacked almost every day, often involving kidnapping and hostage taking, with pirates using automatic weapons including rocket propelled grenades. In particular the [global shipping] industry believes there is currently a lack of political will on the part of governments to give military forces the clear rules of engagement they need, notwithstanding the mandate provided by the UN Security Council in June.
Military aid ineffective: No way to ensure it is used properly (Pakistan)
Greg Miller, Los Angeles Times, November 5, 2007
Despite billions of dollars in U.S. military payments to Pakistan over the last six years, the paramilitary force leading the pursuit of Al Qaeda militants remains underfunded, poorl y trained and overwhelmingly outgunned, U.S. military and intelligence officials said. Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf cited the rising militant threat in declaring a state of emergency on Saturday and suspending the constitution. But rather than use the more than $7 billion in U.S. military aid to bolster its counter-terrorism capabilities, Pakistan has spent the bulk of it on heavy arms, aircraft and equipment that U.S. officials say are far more suited for conventional warfare with India, its regional rival.
1. World reaction
US anti-piracy efforts versus terrorism = self-fulfilling prophecy: World turned off by interventionist stance in the oceans
Dr. Chandra Muzaffar (president of International Movement for a Just World, which is based in Malaysia), Tehran Times (Iran’s leading international newspaper), “The Politics of the Straits of Malacca”, September 15, 2008
Though piracy is a problem, the littoral states have down a fairly good job in curbing it. If the U.S. involvement is directed at warding off Al-Qaeda type terrorist attack, it is quite conceivable—given the situation in various countries – that the United States’ presence itself will attract Al-Qaeda militants to the Straits. It is only too apparent why the Straits of Malacca are important in itself to the U.S., which is making a desperate bid to sustain the Washington-helmed unipolar global system that emerged after the end of the Cold War. If anything, its desire to contain the rise of China has increased the strategic significance of the Straits. As a littoral state, Malaysia has the sovereign right to protect the Straits — a right that is based upon international law. This is why Malaysia has for some time now insisted that non-littoral states should not seek to control either directly or indirectly the management of the Straits of Malacca. The Indonesian government has adopted a similar stand. Of the littoral states, it is only Singapore that would like the United States to play a more important and interventionist role.
US-India partnership could provoke China, Pakistan
Ingolf Kiesow (Retired Asian ambassador, Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
Swedish Defense Research Agency) & Nicklas Norling (Assistant Editor of China and E urasia Forum Quarterly, MA degree in Political Science), Central Asia – Caucasus Institute Silk Road Studies Program (transatlantic, independent research and policy center), “Rise of India”, January 2007
There are, in fact, many factors of strategic importance to the U.S. that constitute arguments against the new partnership with India. China may for instance be provoked to pursue a more active policy to block U.S. efforts in South Asia, making the subcontinent a new battle-ground for political competition. President Hu Jintao’s journey to India and Pakistan in November 2006 may be seen from this perspective. Pakistan may react against the U.S. favoring of India as reason for closer military and economic relations with China. Pakistan has entered into a joint venture with China for the production of the next generation of jet-fighters, ha s asked China to honor an old agreement to build a nuclear reactor in Pakistan, invited China to invest in a new harbor at Gwadar in Baluchistan (which may serve as a military base for China in case of conflict), and to build a pipeline for natural gas from Gwadar to Xinjiang. These initiatives are all signs that Pakistan may already be trying to develop closer strategic contacts with China once
US-India military ties should be loose (to prevent an arms race)
Ingolf Kiesow (Retired Asian ambassador, Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
Swedish Defense Research Agency) & Nicklas Norling (Assistant Editor of China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, MA degree in Political Science), Central Asia – Caucasus Institute Silk Road Studies Program (transatlantic, independent research and policy center), “Rise of India”, January 2007
Development towards a real Indian-U.S. military partnership could have a dramatic consequence, and take the form of an arms-race and a tendency toward a new Cold War. Given China’s efforts to appear as a friend of Muslim nations, the consequences could be drastic, in particular if the U.S. war on terrorism is intensified. For the time being, ideological differences speak for the least dramatic of these alternatives, namely a loose partnership between India and the U.S., with both partners trying not to provoke Chinese fears of a military encirclement and an ensuing counter-reaction from China.
A. Frightens India’s neighbors
India’s neighbors fear dominance by a strong India and will seek assistance from the outside (208)
Impact: lost benefits of South Asia regional cooperation on terrorism, proliferation and human security problems (209)
B. Angering Pakistan
Pakistan has justified fear of US-Indo game of encirclement (BBA, 234)
Pakistan participates in Task Force 150
US Dept. of Defense, April 24, 2006
Pakistan today became the first regional country to command a combined task force in the Middle East in the war on terror. Pakistani Rear Adm. Shahid Iqbal received command from Dutch Commodore Hank Ort during a ceremony aboard the HNLMS De Zeven Provicien in the harbor here. Iqbal will command the force [Task Force 150] for the next six months.
2. Diverts money away from more pressing needs
Poor use of money: Money spent on new military capabilities could bring drinking water to millions (209)
The False Link doesn’t prove it at all. Besides Somalia being in the Indian Ocean or nearby, just having somewhere else have MORE piracy doesn’t mean you don’t. Plus, yours is more qualitatively significant (trade coming through there), plus yours is where we DON’T have a meganational task force working.
Inherency…exercises /=/ joint cooperation for extended time. In fact, that evidence helps YOU. Plus they’re contradicting their first point–why conduct exercises for a non-existent problem?
India working with regional neighbors is WHY you’re cooperating with them. They can go where our ships can’t but they don’t have over the horizon radar and tech that we do.
India being happy helps YOU b/c it shows they’ll be willing to help. Quote your sources from India saying they are actively seeking more partnerships.
Solvency: by intelligence sharing, we can help them decompartmentalize. No evidence in the BB will actually mention piracy or our case.
Somalia evidence contradicts previous evidence saying that cooperation regionally has helped reduce piracy 😛
Somalia is getting worse but not as bad as it could be. Plus, what other alternative is there to trying to combat piracy? huh??
Yes, HUMINT and SIGINT of U.S. can help at shore counterpiracy ops.
Read the non-underlined pieces of evidence in Rules of Engagement. It says they need more cooperation, contradicting and proving your solvency. Plus, we already have RoE as U.S. forces and at worst this is a non-unique disadvantage. Also press them for India or U.S. specific evidence–its probably referring to African countries. If you look up higher in the article, you see this is true “carried out with increasing frequency against ships in the Gulf of Aden, by pirates based in Somalia.”
This article also later contradicts their overall point and recommends your plan: “The shipping industry believes that the only effective action is for the naval forces to engage actively and forcefully, as they are better armed, trained and resourced than those committing acts of piracy. The shipping industry does not underestimate the bravery or good intentions of those manning warships in the region, but the current patrolling and hands-off approach is clearly making no difference. They argue that while the naval forces are indeed ready to tackle the piracy problem, they need a clear signal from governments, through unequivocal rules of engagement, to do so.”
Money evd is talking about Pakistan to whom we just give blanket anti-terrorism money. Not so here.
DA card 1: you’re not actually going into the Straits because you can’t. You’re giving AWACS and over-the-horizon radar intel to India to allow them to more effectively do so. Thank you neg for both showing that Straits need policed and that India CAN go there b/c of cooperation with Malaysia and Singapore and Indonesia.
Second DA evidence is almost abuse its so poorly cut. Has nothing to do with your case. Plus, non-unique since we already police the world’s oceans and waterways. Plus impact outweigh with your harm/adv evd (there was no impact given to ‘angering’ China or Pakistan)
DA card 3 contradicts their inherency point about U.S. and India already cooperating–thus non-unique and defeated since the arms race isn’t happening. Plus evd only says “could” have and gives no real impact. How can you have an impact when China and Pakistan are already nuclear weapons states? What’s an arms race when they’ve got those and are already building up their armies? 😛
Frightening India’s neighbors is contradicted by their points about regional cooperation. Plus there’s no impact. We’re fighting freaking piracy!
“Fear of India” by Pakistan isn’t a DA! None of these have actual IMPACT. Who cares if there is “fear”? Pakistan and India are practically at war all the time, of COURSE they fear each other.
Resources: Glad they bring this up. Turn. Cooperation allows LESS resources to do MORE. If we communicate with their forces and share shifts with their patrols, then we need LESS resources and combat piracy more. Plus impact outweigh: Piracy is SUPER SUPER SUPER SUPER important.